As I sit down to look ahead at the Arkansas State Red Wolves’ upcoming season, my mind, perhaps oddly, drifts to a completely different sporting context halfway across the world. I was just reading about Barangay Ginebra facing Converge in the second provincial foray of the All-Filipino Conference in San Fernando, Pampanga this Saturday. That concept of a "provincial foray" – a team taking its show on the road to energize a local fanbase and prove its mettle in a different environment – feels strikingly relevant to the challenge awaiting Arkansas State. This isn’t just about playing home games in Jonesboro; it’s about forging an identity resilient enough to win in hostile Sun Belt territories and, more importantly, to re-engage their own passionate but waiting-to-be-reignited fanbase. The upcoming season, in my view, hinges on this dual mission: solidifying a defensive identity and finding explosive consistency on offense, all while navigating a schedule that offers both landmines and opportunities.
Let’s start with the reason for cautious optimism: the offense should be fun. Quarterback Jaylen Raynor, after a baptism by fire as a true freshman last season, is the unequivocal leader. He threw for over 2,800 yards and 23 touchdowns against just 8 interceptions, numbers that frankly, I thought we’d see more from a veteran, not a kid learning on the fly. His dual-threat capability is the engine. But here’s my take – the ceiling of this unit isn’t just about Raynor. It’s about whether the receiving corps, which lost its top target, can develop a true alpha. Courtney Jackson is gone, and someone like Adam Jones or a transfer needs to step up and be that 70-catch, 1,000-yard security blanket. The running game, with Ja’Quez Cross and Zak Wallace, is solid, but I’d love to see Offensive Coordinator Keith Heckendorf get a bit more creative in short-yardage situations. We’ve been a bit predictable there in past years. If the line, which returns three starters, can gel quickly, this offense has the potential to average, say, 32 points per game. That’s the benchmark they need to hit to contend.
Now, the elephant in the room, and it’s a big one: the defense. Last year was, to put it mildly, a struggle. Giving up nearly 35 points and 450 yards per game simply won’t cut it. New defensive coordinator Rob Harley has his work cut out for him, and I’ll be honest, I’m viewing this as a multi-year rebuild. The switch to a more multiple front is a start, but it’s about player development and tackling fundamentals more than scheme. The secondary was particularly vulnerable, allowing a completion percentage north of 65%. They need to find at least two lockdown corners, and I’m not sure that talent is fully on the roster yet. The linebacker corps, led by Javante Mackey, has experience, but they were often out of position in 2023. My expectation for this season is modest but critical: show tangible improvement. Don’t need to be a top-25 defense overnight, but cutting those yardage and points allowed figures by even 10-15% would be a massive win and keep them in games the offense can steal.
The schedule presents a fascinating narrative arc. The non-conference slate is brutal, with trips to Oklahoma and Iowa State. Let’s be real – those are probable losses, but the measure of this team will be how competitive they are. Keeping those games within 17-20 points by the fourth quarter would be a moral victory that builds resilience. The real season starts with Sun Belt play. The home opener against Southern Miss is a massive tone-setter. The conference road schedule – trips to Texas State, Louisiana, and South Alabama – is where that "provincial foray" mentality I mentioned earlier comes into play. Winning just one of those would be progress; winning two would signal a team on the rise. The season finale at home against rival Louisiana could have bowl eligibility implications, and that’s exactly where you want to be. Personally, I’m circling the October 19th game at home against Appalachian State. That’s the measuring-stick game. If they’re competitive with the Mountaineers, the trajectory is positive.
So, what should you realistically expect? I’m leaning toward a season of marked growth rather than a division title challenge. A 6-6 record and a return to bowl eligibility is the clear, achievable goal, and in my book, that would constitute a successful season. It’s about seeing Raynor take the next step into conference MVP conversations, watching the defense string together stops instead of breakdowns, and feeling the energy return to Centennial Bank Stadium. Like Barangay Ginebra venturing into Pampanga, the Red Wolves are on a mission to reclaim their territory – both in the Sun Belt standings and in the hearts of their fans. It won’t be a smooth ride, and there will be frustrating Saturdays, but the pieces for a resurgence are there. The key is patience and progress, one gritty, hard-fought "provincial foray" at a time. I expect them to be a tougher out than anyone anticipates, and by November, we might just be talking about a team no one wants to play.
