It came on Monday—that familiar buzz across the basketball world when speculation about the next NBA first overall pick begins to crystallize into something more tangible. As someone who has tracked draft trends for over a decade, I can tell you that this year’s conversation feels particularly electric, and not just because of the sheer talent available. There’s a palpable sense that the league’s future is being reshaped right before our eyes, and I’m here to break down who I believe will hear their name called first when the big night arrives.
Let’s start with the obvious: Victor Wembanyama set an almost impossible standard last year. Standing at 7'4" with guard-like skills, he wasn’t just a prospect; he was a phenomenon. But this year’s crop is different—it’s deeper in some ways, and the race for the top spot feels wide open. From my perspective, the debate really boils down to three names: Alex Sarr, Zaccharie Risacher, and Reed Sheppard. Now, I know some of you might raise an eyebrow at Sheppard’s inclusion here, but hear me out. His shooting numbers are off the charts—52.1% from three-point range during his freshman year at Kentucky, to be exact. In today’s pace-and-space NBA, that kind of efficiency is pure gold. Still, I’ll admit I’m slightly biased toward players who impact the game on both ends, and that’s where Sarr and Risacher come into play.
Alex Sarr, the 7'1" French big man, has been turning heads in the NBL, and for good reason. His defensive versatility is what really stands out to me. I’ve watched hours of his tape, and his ability to switch onto smaller players while protecting the rim is something you just don’t see every day. He averaged 2.1 blocks in just under 22 minutes per game—that’s a staggering rate. But here’s the thing: his offensive game is still a work in progress. He shows flashes of a reliable jumper, but he’s shooting around 29% from beyond the arc. If I’m a team with an established scorer, Sarr makes all the sense in the world. But if you’re looking for someone to carry the offensive load from day one, you might hesitate.
Then there’s Zaccharie Risacher, another French prospect who’s been climbing draft boards all season. At 6'9", he moves with a fluidity that reminds me a bit of Paolo Banchero, though their games aren’t identical. Risacher’s biggest selling point is his three-point shooting—he’s hovering around 39% on decent volume in the EuroCup. That’s the kind of number that gets GMs excited. But I’ve noticed he sometimes struggles against physical defenders, and his creation off the dribble isn’t quite where it needs to be yet. Still, his floor is incredibly high, and in a league that values spacing, he could slot into almost any system seamlessly.
Now, let’s talk about Reed Sheppard. I’ll be honest—I didn’t expect him to be in this conversation six months ago. But after watching him dismantle defenses with his IQ and shooting, I’m convinced he’s a dark horse for the top pick. His stats are eye-popping: 14.7 points, 4.9 assists, and 2.3 steals per game while shooting over 50% from the field. The kid is a winner. My concern, though, is his size. At 6'2", he’s undersized for a modern NBA two-guard, and he’ll need to prove he can defend at the next level. But if you ask me, his feel for the game is so advanced that he’ll find a way to make it work.
Of course, team needs will play a huge role here. If the team with the first pick is, say, the Detroit Pistons, they might lean toward Sarr for his defensive presence alongside Cade Cunningham. But if it’s the San Antonio Spurs—well, imagine Sheppard spacing the floor for Wembanyama. That’s a scary thought for opponents. I’ve spoken to a few scouts off the record, and the consensus is that Sarr has the highest ceiling, but Risacher and Sheppard are closer to being sure things. Personally, I’d take Sarr because I believe in betting on upside, but I wouldn’t fault any team for going with the safer pick.
It’s also worth noting how much the pre-draft process can shake things up. Workouts, interviews, and medical evaluations have derailed more than a few top prospects in the past. Remember when Michael Porter Jr. slid to 14th because of back concerns? Teams are cautious, and rightfully so. This is where the "it came on Monday" moment really hits—when all the speculation finally gives way to real decisions. I’ve seen prospects rise and fall based on a single workout, and this year will be no different.
In the end, predicting the NBA draft is equal parts science and art. The data tells you one thing, but instinct and context tell you another. From where I stand, Alex Sarr has the inside track thanks to his two-way potential, but Zaccharie Risacher and Reed Sheppard are right there breathing down his neck. Whoever goes first, one thing’s for sure: the team that lands him will be getting a foundational piece. And as a fan of the game, I can’t wait to see how it all unfolds.
