Looking back at the 2011 NBA Draft, I still get that familiar mix of nostalgia and analytical curiosity. As someone who’s spent years studying player development and draft analytics, I find this particular class fascinating—not just for its star power, but for the dramatic divergences in career trajectories. On one hand, you had future MVPs and champions emerging from unexpected slots; on the other, highly-touted prospects who, for various reasons, never quite lived up to the hype. I remember watching the draft that night, scribbling notes and thinking, “This could be one of those drafts that defines franchises for a decade.” And in many ways, it did.
One of the most glaring steals, in my opinion, was Kawhi Leonard falling to the 15th pick. The Indiana Pacers originally selected him, only to trade him to the San Antonio Spurs in a deal that, frankly, still baffles me when I revisit the tape. Leonard wasn’t the flashiest prospect—his offensive game needed polish—but his defensive instincts and wingspan were off the charts. I recall thinking even then that the Spurs had pulled off something special. Fast forward, and Kawhi has racked up two NBA championships, two Finals MVP awards, and five All-NBA Team selections. Compare that to some of the names taken before him—like Jan Veselý at number 6—and it’s a stark reminder of how scouting can miss the intangibles. Leonard’s career PER hovers around 25.3, a superstar-level metric, while Veselý’s never broke 15. That’s not just a miss; it’s a franchise-altering oversight.
Then there’s Jimmy Butler, picked 30th overall by the Chicago Bulls. I’ll admit, I didn’t see his rise coming either. At Marquette, he was solid but not spectacular—averaging around 15.7 points per game in his final college season. But his work ethic? Unmatched. I’ve spoken with trainers who worked with him early on, and they all say the same thing: Butler was obsessed with improving, often staying hours after practice. That drive translated into six All-Star appearances and a reputation as one of the league’s premier two-way players. It’s picks like these that make me appreciate how much mindset matters. Teams often focus on raw talent, but Butler’s story underscores that intangibles like resilience and leadership can turn a late pick into a cornerstone player.
But for every steal, there’s a bust that leaves you scratching your head. Take Derrick Williams, selected second overall by the Minnesota Timberwolves. He was coming off a stellar season at Arizona, where he put up 19.5 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. The hype was real—many analysts, myself included, thought he’d be a versatile forward who could stretch the floor. Yet, in the NBA, he never found a consistent role, bouncing between five teams in his first seven seasons. His career averages settled around 8.9 points and 4.0 rebounds, a far cry from what you’d expect from a number two pick. I think part of the issue was fit; Minnesota already had Kevin Love, and Williams never quite adapted. It’s a lesson in how organizational context can make or break a prospect.
Another surprising letdown was Jimmer Fredette, taken 10th by the Milwaukee Bucks (and later traded). Jimmer-mania was in full swing back then—he’d averaged 28.9 points per game at BYU and won the Naismith Award. Fans loved him, and I remember the buzz around his shooting range. But the NBA game exposed his limitations on defense and playmaking. He struggled to create his own shot against longer defenders, and his career fizzled out after a few seasons, with him eventually moving overseas. It’s a classic case of college success not translating, and it reminds me how crucial it is to evaluate players within an NBA context, not just based on highlight reels.
Reflecting on these stories, I’m reminded of a quote from an interview with Beau Belga that, while not directly about the NBA, captures the essence of draft dynamics: “I was really eyeing for it. Sabi ko nga sa mga nagma-manage, puwede ako Game Two. Pero meron na silang napili. Sabi ko, in case wala talaga, I can. In-ano ko naman sa oras eh. Kung babanga talaga sa oras na hindi ako aabot sa laro, hindi ko ‘yun iko-compromise.” In a way, that’s what the draft is about—players eyeing their moment, teams making choices, and the unpredictable timing of it all. Some, like Belga, are ready to step up if called upon, while others, due to mismanagement or bad luck, never get the chance to shine. In the 2011 draft, we saw both extremes, and it’s why I keep coming back to it as a case study in risk and reward.
Ultimately, the 2011 class teaches us that draft success isn’t just about picking the right player; it’s about development, fit, and a bit of luck. As I look at today’s drafts, I carry those lessons with me—always digging deeper into character and context, not just stats. Because as Kawhi and Butler showed, greatness can hide in plain sight, waiting for the right opportunity to break out.
